The civil war between the factions of United States Republican Party has definitively broken out in Congress this Monday and promises to install, at least for the next few days, the House of Representatives in chaos. Matt Gaetz one of the representatives of the far right in the Lower House, has presented a motion to impeach Kevin McCarthy, the ‘speaker’ who occupies the second position in the line of presidential succession after the vice president, Kamala Harris. And the future of McCarthy is now in hands of the Democrats.
The ultra rebellion against McCarthy has broken out less than 48 after the speaker of the House worked with Democrats to approve a bill in extremis on Saturday law which allowed the government’s budget to be temporarily extended for 45 days and avoid a partial closure of the Administration.
“It is increasingly clear who he works for and it is not the Republican conference,” said Gaetz, a congressman from Florida, a few hours before presenting the motion against McCarthy, whom he accused of having reached “a secret agreement” with the Democrats and President Joe Biden to ensure the help ukraine which has been left out of the latest budget agreement.
A crash announced
The rebellion, however, came from further away. Already in January, when the new Congress took office after the November legislative elections in which the Republicans regained control of the Lower House although with a slim majority, McCarthy needed 15 rounds of voting to secure the position. He was a agonizing and humiliating process in which the Californian had to do concessions precisely to the ultra wing that have already predicted years of upheaval that are proving to be true. And one of them was allowing the motion of censure to begin with just one votewhich Gaetz took advantage of this Monday.
It is not that McCarthy has not done in these months efforts to appease the ultra wing. It has given in, for example, to pressure to launch andThe process to initiate an impeachment against Joe Bidenand last week the first hearing of the investigative commission for that impeachment trial was held, despite the fact that no evidence has been presented to confirm his accusations that he participated and corruptly benefited from his son’s businesses. Hunter Biden in countries like Ukraine and China.
The congressmen most aligned with former President Donald Trump, however, have questioned McCarthy’s leadership from the first moment. And they have also criticized and tried to blow up the agreement that he sealed with the White House a few months ago to suspend the debt ceiling, which in exchange for promises of spending limitations prevented the United States from going into default.
Standards and precedents
Under Congressional rules, there is now a 48 hour period to vote on the motionwhich is literally to vacate the position of ‘speaker’ and that It only has two precedents in the history, none of which were successful. In the first, in 1910, it was the ‘speaker’ himself who then presented a kind of motion of confidence, which he overcame. In 2015 the most radical wing of the Republicans, then the Tea Party, launched a campaign against John Boehnerwhich was never voted on but contributed to the Republican leaving office.
McCarthy could try delaying procedures with bureaucratic maneuversbut Gaetz seems to have enough votes assured within the Republican Party to succeed in impeachment. And he has further promised that will not give up in his efforts if it fails in the first vote, using as a scale the 15 rounds of voting that McCarthy himself needed to be ratified.
Thus, another one is coming period of turmoil and chaos in the Lower House that can be lengthened, dhindering its operation and the necessary progress in the budget negotiationswhich must be resolved before November 17 .
In the hands of the Democrats
The situation makes McCarthy’s future is in the hands of the Democrats, who see themselves before a deep dilemma and whose conference, led by Hakeem Jeffrieshas called a meeting this Tuesday to study the next steps.
Could support him to remain in officesomething doubtful before a leader who has opened the impeachment procedure against Biden even when there is no evidence of corruption against the president, who has advanced the ultra-conservative legislative agenda and who, despite having initially criticized Trump for his harangue to the masses who stormed the Capitol, it took him little time to bury those criticisms and show himself as one of the former president’s faithful allies.
They could also take a more passive position, absenting themselves from the vote or declaring themselves “present”, with what would lower the number of votes needed to achieve a majority and they would help the Republican speaker to counteract internal opposition.
It is a support that several Democrats reject outright, but to which others are open if they manage to extract concrete concessions from McCarthy. These, according to US media, could range from securing more aid for Ukraine to guaranteeing the implementation of the debt ceiling agreement or giving more federal contracts to districts governed by Democrats.