He PNV and EH Bildu They would tie in seats in the next Basque elections according to him Sociometer voting intention published this Friday by the Department of Sociological Prospecting of the Basque Government.
The Jeltzales would obtain 27 parliamentarians in the Basque Chamber compared to the 31 they got in the 2020 elections, the same ones they would achieve EH Bildu (27) which would add 6 more parliamentarians than it currently has in the Basque Parliament.
Despite the tie in number of parliamentarians, the PNV would achieve an absolute majority if it adds its votes to those of the PSE to form a coalition government as it has done in the two previous legislatures. The Sociometer gives the Basque socialists 11 seatscompared to the current ten, with which the sum of parliamentarians from the PNV and the PSE would reach 38, which marks the absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.
According to the voting intention survey, Adding Mugimendua would give Podemos Euskadi a surprise. The formation whose candidacy is led by Alba García would achieve 2 parliamentarians compared to the only representative that the purples would obtain. The coalition Elkarrekin Podemos is the one that would suffer the greatest disaster According to the data from the Sociometer, since in the July 2020 elections they added 6 parliamentarians, and after the next Basque elections, and running alone, only their candidate for lehendakari, Miren Gorrotxategi, would be in the Basque Chamber.
The survey does not provide significant changes with respect to the results that the Basque PP would obtain, which on this occasion is no longer presented together with the Ciudadanos brand. The populars would continue with 6 representativesthe same ones that this legislature has had, and VOX would maintain its only parliamentarian.
Possible agreements
The Sociometer data would allow several government options. To the already mentioned coalition between PNV and PSE, which both formations are in favor of reissuing, the possible alliance between EH Bildu and Basque socialists since they would also have an absolute majority with 38 parliamentarians. However, This option seems unlikely based on the statements of the leader of the Basque socialistsEneko Andueza, and other PSE leaders who until now have rejected the possibility of forming a government with the nationalist coalition.
The Third way would be for the two forces with the most votes to form a government. The EH Bildu candidate, Pello Otxandiano, has reiterated on several occasions the possibility of joining forces allowing the most voted list to govern, an alternative to which neither the PNV nor its candidate Imanol Pradales have given credibility at any time.
The PNV maintains its hegemony in Bizkaia
The Jeltzale formation would continue to be the most voted force in Bizkaia with a clear advantage over the second force EH Bildu. The Sociometer points out that the PNV would achieve 11 parliamentarians in this territoryone less than in 2020. EH Bildu would obtain eight seats in the Basque Parliament for Bizkaia, two more than in the last elections.
Furthermore, the coalition Elkarrekin Podemos would lose a seat. The Basque Government survey contemplates that Podemos Euskadi and Sumar present themselves separately, and the only parliamentarian who would obtain this political space would be for the purples while Sumar would be left without representation in Bizkaia.
The PP would maintain its two representatives in the territory and Vox would continue without obtaining representation.
In Gipuzkoa the force with the most votes would be EH Bildu what would I achieve 11 seats compared to the 9 achieved by the coalition in 2020. Secondly, the PNV would get 9 representatives in the Basque Parliament compared to the current 10. The Sociometer maintains that the Basque socialists will defend their space and maintain their current 3 seats.
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