In Ferraz they trust the electoral turnaround in Galicia to the increase in participation. To mobilize voters who chose their ballot in the last general or municipal elections and are hesitant to go to the polls on February 18. Participation in the regional elections is historically lower than that of other events, as the socialists emphasize, convinced that if they manage to combat part of the abstention among the progressive electorate they will break the hegemony of the PP in Galicia. To this end, the party leadership has put all its machinery at the disposal of the PSdeG and its candidate, José Ramón Gómez Besteiro, with an involvement hardly unprecedented. Including the landing in the campaign of the socialist ministers, of former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and of the head of the Executive and leader of the socialists. Pedro Sánchez will redouble his presence in Galicia during the last two days of the campaign, as his team advances.
The President of the Government intends to close the 18-F campaign having toured the four Galician provinces. In the absence of closing the campaign closing rally, Sánchez plans to be in Santiago de Compostela and A Coruña. This Saturday he will participate in the central meeting of the midpoint of the socialist campaign in Vigo and last weekend he supported Besteiro in Ourense. During the pre-campaign he already participated in a party event in Lugo and, previously, in the closing rally of the PSOE Political Conference that was held at the end of January in A Coruña as a launch pad for the electoral race.
Sánchez will also attend an institutional event this Friday in the city of Hercules on the Day of Women and Girls in Science. On January 24, a week after starting the campaign, she visited the Navantia Ferrol shipyard to announce the construction of a new Navy ship, with the creation of 1,800 jobs and the investment of 439 million euros. A journey through which The Electoral Board has opened a sanctioning file against him considering that it violated the principle of “political neutrality.”
The party leadership manages internal surveys in which They say they place their floor between 13 and 14 seats. From there, they hope to get some more representatives in the Pazo do Hórreo to push for a change that, they recognize, if it occurs It would be led by Ana Pontón’s BNG. Precisely, the strength of the Galician nationalists is a brake on the growth of the PSdeG, which in the last elections garnered 14 votes. The PP achieved the majority with a four-seat margin (42) and the BNG obtained 19.
All the surveys agree in pointing out a strong rise of the BNG with the consequent effect that this has on the useful vote within the progressive bloc. Despite this, the PSOE claims that the number of undecided people remains high to point out the last week of the campaign as decisive. Especially in the last few days, in which Sánchez will settle in Galicia to try to transmit a “drive for change” that at the moment has not fully penetrated. The paradox, they point out in the socialist ranks, that Galicians would like change but believe that it is not possible.
Their objective is to increase participation between four and five points with which they claim to ensure a change of Government in the Xunta. Let your potential voters go to the polls urban and peri-urban areas in general and municipal elections. Both Ferraz and the PSdeG point out that the possibilities of overturning so that a progressive alternative “they are high”. The open scenario that there is a party is also fueled by the supposed “nervousness” in the popular ranks.
Electoral barrier
The key will be, according to his reading, in the last seats at stake in A Coruña and Pontevedra. The two constituencies in which Sumar has the best chance of obtaining representation and thereby snatching away the last PP deputy. If the platform led by second vice president Yolanda Díaz does not obtain representation, the progressive bloc could win in votes, but not in seats. The electoral barrier to convert votes into seats is located at a minimum of 5%. The conclusion of most surveys is that the percentage that Sumar would need to ensure its representation is similar to that given to Podemos, currently extra-parliamentary. Its recent break would show in the Galician elections the effect of the fragmentation of the progressive vote.
The reading of the socialists is that they have a lot to gain in this campaign and little to lose. They assume that they will continue to be the third force, although they accept any result that entails a change in the Xunta. If it occurs, they point out that “the main loser” will be the leader of the PPAlberto Núñez Feijóo, whose leadership in Genoa would be weakened. A defeat in the popular fiefdom after failing to form a government after 23-J. They understand that this scenario would have a strong national impact.
Row in the same direction
Looking ahead to the electoral cycle that will continue with the Basques, in the second quarter of the year, and the Europeans, on June 9, the socialists would gain oxygen and They would challenge the discourse of “wear and tear” for their pacts with the independence parties. At the PSOE headquarters they assume that if there is no PP majority there will be a left-wing government of which they would be part, even if the presidency falls to the BNG.
The president of the popular party is leading an electoral caravan parallel to that of his successor and candidate, Alfonso Rueda, with the aim of nationalizing the campaign and helping to sign the fifth consecutive majority of the Galician PP. In the leadership of the PSOE, not only do they not shy away from nationalizing the campaign, but they encourage it because they believe that it would serve to increase participation. However, the focus on amnesty law is overshadowing the prominence of its messages focused on economic management and the social agenda. The decision to redouble Sánchez’s involvement in this campaign involves reinforcing this discourse and, after turning the map of Spain blue in the past regional elections, snatching away from the PP one of its fiefdoms so that “row in the same direction” as the central Executive.