Iran throws the stone and hides its hand

The Islamic Republic of Iran be the country that has benefited the most from the disorder that the Middle East is experiencing since terrorists from Hamas They will launch their brutal attack against Israel.

Everything suggests that Iran has overcome the worst moment of isolation and impact of the sanctions imposed by the United States after donald trump unilaterally denounce the Nuclear Agreement concluded with the international community (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action -JCPOA- is its official name in English) and that it is skillfully playing its cards to once again be the dominant power in a region where, on the other hand, it has always been since the times of Cyrus and that he had lost when the 1979 revolution established a clerical dictatorship led by Ayatollah Khomeini.

A lot has rained since then. Iran has recovered on the diplomatic, economic and military levels, although on the political level the repression exemplified by the death of Mahsa Amini and in the protest demonstrations that followed, and also the uncertainty over the succession of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei (84 years old), a decision that falls within the competence of the Council of Experts but which the Guardians of the Revolution will likely want to influence when the time comes.

At the diplomatic level, Iran, which is known to be surrounded by North American troops stationed in Israel, Syria, Iraq and the Gulf countries, has become an irreplaceable supplier of drones to Russia, has established diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia with the support of China, has been invited to join the expanded BRICS group, and has become as a member of the Shanghai Security Organization in the Russian-Chinese orbit. Despite being of the Shiite religion in a majority Sunni environment, Iran today is not an isolated country either in the region or in the world and that allows it to become the champion of the Palestinians and remain the archenemy of Israel and of USA.

On the economic front, things have improved a lot: between 2022 and 2024, its economy has grown by 12.1%, double that of the United States (6.1%) and much more than anemic Europe, and this year it will export oil worth of up to 40,000 million dollars, which will allow it to balance the budget. The year 1983 is far away, when oil paid for 98% of imports, since today there are other items that cover 60%. Inflation remains high (46% in 2023) and it is not expected that this year it will drop below 32%, which is nothing to be happy about, but the discomfort is diluted because the Iranians are used to it, as is also the case in Argentina, and because unemployment is around an enviable 7%. So people have a bad time but they have always had a bad time and now at least they are hopeful.

On a military level, Iran has very advanced drone technology that shows its effectiveness on the battlefields of Ukraine, and also in missiles whose range of action covers the entire Middle East. And there is the thorny issue of uranium enrichment where Iran sends contradictory signals, surely to mislead, because while Israel murders its main scientists one after another, Tehran repeats over and over again that it is not in its plans to acquire a nuclear weapon, something that is not everyone believes it. After the JCPOA was cornered (in my opinion a very serious mistake by Trump), Iran enriched uranium above the permitted limits until reaching dangerously close to the 90% necessary for a nuclear device, although recent news indicates that it has lowered that level again. percentage. Iran knows that if it crosses the threshold and becomes a nuclear power it will be untouchable, as is the case with North Korea, but it also knows that this is an existential question for Israel, which alone or with Washington will not allow it.

That is why Tehran measures its times and takes advantage of the Gaza conflict to increase its influence by mobilizing various groups in which it has influence such as the Houthis, Hizbollah, Hamas, and various pro-Iranian organizations in Syria and Iraq to harass its American and Iraqi enemies. Israelis throwing the stone and hiding their hand, in order to avoid being involved in a larger conflict that does not suit them. It is a very delicate game but for now it is paying off.

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