He Sociological Research Center (CIS) has prepared a double portion of polls for this Monday, a few hours before the obsolete ban on publishing polls during the five days prior to an election comes into force. In this case, the regional elections in Galicia next Sunday. The CIS will broadcast at 11:30 a.m. survey on the Galician elections prepared during the first week of the campaign. And at 1:00 p.m. he will announce the results of the february barometerthe monthly delivery of the survey that measures voting intention in general elections, and which this time has been carried out after Junts stopped the amnesty law.
The CIS study on Galicia will be the last thermometer for the parties before the demographic silence imposed by the electoral law and will allow us to verify whether, as this organization has reflected in its two previous surveys, the PP of Alfonso Rueda reaches the final sprint of the campaign without having guaranteed the absolute majority that it has enjoyed since 2009. In the first regional elections without Alberto Núñez Feijóo in 15 years, the CIS predicted a week agoafter the first stages of the campaign, that the popular ones would obtain 34-38 seatswith 38 being the threshold of the absolute majority in the Galician Parliament.
The Xunta, in the air
Governance was left up in the air and the door was opened to a left-wing government led by the BNG (22-26 deputies), which was growing strongly and widening its distance from a PSOE down (13-15). The survey left Add already Ourense Democracy, the party that governs the Ourense City Council together with the PP, on the verge of obtaining one seat each. Thus, the left could govern as long as the PP and Democracia Ourensana did not gain an absolute majority. Regarding the survey carried out before the campaign, the PP had lost one point, the BNG had gained 3.6 points, the PSOE had dropped three tenths and Sumar had fallen 1.4 points.
For his part, the february barometer What will be known today will be the first CIS survey since Junts overthrew the amnesty law in Congress and forced the PSOE to continue negotiating amendments on terrorism. A setback that has led to the president Pedro Sanchez to propose, and then retract, a possible legal reform to shorten the investigation periods of judicial cases in exchange for not modifying the amnesty. In the January survey, the CIS placed the socialists again ahead of the PP after two months with Feijóo in first position. In parallel, Sumar resented the break with Podemos and Junts capitalized on his prominence by being Sánchez’s only ally who improved his expectations.